Elliott count, Fibonacci price and time, Gann 1x1 and trend-based fib time on one map. Three conditional scenarios for the end of the correction from the 87.9k top, with what confirms and what kills each one.
BTCUSD · As of Nov 1, 202677,916day 42 of correction · 0.5× impulse time
APEX Research · Dated analysis: November 1, 2026. The 77,916 quote and schematic paths are a research snapshot, not a live price feed or automated alert.
Explore the three paths and the conditions that change them.
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Scenarios
Layers
Pivots are read from 4h and 1h charts and are approximate; the price path is schematic (pivot to pivot). Scenario paths are illustrations of shape and timing, not forecasts of exact prices. Hover the chart for date and price.
Scenarios
SCENARIO AWave 2 is done at ~76.3k
Z of the triple three ended Oct 31. A shallow, time-heavy correction: the signature of a strong trend.
Evidence
0.5× impulse time · trend-based 0.5 on Oct 31 · Z = Y in time · 1.0 ext 76,116 + 0.382 retr 76,297 · triple three is max complexity
Time
Wave 3 lines Dec 2 · Dec 21 · Jan 22 · Mar 14 · top window Mar 4–14
Targets
87,926 → 106,700 (1.0×) → 125,500 (1.618×)
Pullbacks hold above 76.1k (wave ii)
Clean 5-wave advance off the low on 1h / 4h
4h acceptance above the 200 MA, ~80k
Break of the falling trendline from Oct 21, ~82.5k
Clear 85.0k, the (X) high
New high above 87,926 confirms wave 3
Invalid: 4h acceptance below 76,116. Then B takes over.
SCENARIO BZ extends into 72.5–74.0k
One more flush completes Z where price, extensions and the Gann 1x1 meet.
Nov 2 · Nov 5–6 (Z = 1.618× Y) · Nov 10–11 (0.618 impulse time + trend-based 1.0)
After
Same wave 3 map as A, dates shifted by ~1 week
Break below 76.1k
Price reaches the box inside the Nov 2–11 window
Reversal + momentum divergence in the box
Reclaim of 76.1k after the low
Then A's steps 3–6 apply
Invalid: acceptance below 69,113 (0.618 retr), which shifts to C. A reclaim of 80k without reaching the box returns to A.
SCENARIO CLarger W‑X‑Y down to 63.5–64.5k
Sep 20 → Oct 31 becomes W, a bounce toward ~82.5k is X, then Y.
Confluence
0.786 retr 63,999 · Y = 1.618× W from 82.5k ≈ 64.0k · HVN 64,544 · lower channel · Gann 1x1 hits 64k Nov 22–23
Time
Low Nov 22–25 (0.786 time + Gann square). If X runs ≥20 days, low moves to ~Dec 12 (1.0 time)
Warning
A low by Nov 17 means ~5× the impulse's speed: price overbalancing time, more bearish than a wave 2
Bounce stalls at 82–83k / the trendline, below 85.0k
Lower low under 76.1k, then no hold at 72.5–74k
Loss of 69.1k with momentum
Slow grind (not a crash) into 64k during Nov 22–25
Core timing window: Nov 22–25; the supplied chart/data zone extends through Nov 26.
Invalid: acceptance above 85,000 kills the drop path.
Whole count invalid below 57,485, the impulse start. Any wave 2 must hold it.
Decision order: 76.1k is the first test. Holding it keeps A alive. Losing it hands off to B (watch 72.5–74k, Nov 2–11). Losing 69.1k hands off to C (watch 64k, Nov 22–25). Above 85k only A remains.
Level ladder
Price
Level
Role
Time map
Date
Source
Use
Oct 22
0.382 impulse time
Marked the (X) high, Oct 21 ✓
Oct 31
0.5 impulse time · trend-based 0.5
Z low at ~76.3k ✓ A
Nov 2
Trend-based 0.618
Early Z-extension window B
Nov 5–6
Z = 1.618× Y time
Z-extension low B
Nov 10–11
0.618 impulse time · trend-based 1.0 · Gann 1x1 at 69.2k
Strongest overlap; last typical date B
Nov 22–25
0.786 impulse time · Gann square of 64k
Deep Y low C
Dec 12
1.0 impulse time · Gann 1x1 back at 57.5k
Slow-X version of C; outer limit for a normal wave 2
Dec 2
Wave 3 trend-based 0.382
Internal turn (wave i/ii of 3) A
Dec 21
Wave 3 trend-based 0.618
Internal turn A
Jan 22
Wave 3 trend-based 1.0
Turn window; 106.7k area A
Mar 4–14
Wave 3 = time of 0→2 · trend-based 1.618
Wave 3 top window A
Wave 3 dates assume wave 2 ended Oct 31. Shift them by however much later the real low prints.